Ahead of the Budget on 26 November, the Chancellor Rachel Reeves MP is reportedly facing a considerable shortfall in the public finances. The Chancellor has confirmed that both tax increases and spending cuts remain under consideration as options to meet her fiscal rules. The Treasury has declined to comment on speculation prior to the publication of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) final forecast, which will accompany the Budget. Persistent inflation and higher interest rates, maintained by the Bank of England to control price rises, have continued to weigh on UK economic growth. This has made it more challenging for the Chancellor to balance fiscal commitments while supporting the economy. The OBR is due to deliver its final draft forecast to the Treasury this week, including updated productivity assumptions, a key measure of economic output per hour worked. According to reports, the OBR has downgraded its productivity forecast by 0.3 percentage points, bringing it closer to the Bank of England’s estimates. Even small changes in productivity assumptions can alter the amount the Government must raise or save by several billion pounds, making this a pivotal factor in the upcoming Budget.